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CO2 Frozen in Arctic Permafrost: The Mother of All Feedback Loops

The level of CO2 in the atmosphere grew by 2.2 parts per million (ppm) in 2007, slightly higher than the 2.0 ppm average for the seven-year period that began in 2000. The average annual growth rate for the previous 30 years was about 1.5 ppm.  The steady growth of CO2 emissions has inflated atmospheric CO2 concentration to 383 ppm in 2007, 37 percent higher than concentration levels at the start of the industrial revolution (about 280 ppm in 1750). 

Today, the level of CO2 in the atmosphere is higher than it has been in at least 650,000 years.  And it is getting worse . . . fast.

The global growth rate of CO2 emissions has risen more rapidly than the most intense fossil fuel scenario established by the IPCC SRES (2000), A1FI- A1 Fossil Fuel intensive; and moving away from stabilization scenarios of 450 ppm and 650 ppm.

The question is how bad will it get and how fast.  New research raises the possibility that it may happen more rapidly than anyone wants to admit.  The amount of carbon stored in the frozen soil in the far Northern Hemisphere, commonly known as Arctic permafrost, is double previous estimates, the research suggests.  Large areas of northern Russia, Canada, Nordic countries and the U.S. state of Alaska have deep layers of frozen soil near the surface called permafrost. 

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Guestimating the Outcome of Copenhagen Talks

One of Australia’s leading climate policy analysts, Dr Andrew McIntosh from Australian National University’s Climate Change Law and Policy Centre, has predicted a global agreement will emerge from the approaching climate-change negotiations in Copenhagen that targets emissions cuts of 10 to 15 percent for developed countries, according to a report in Carbon Extra.

Russia’s new target of a 15 percent emissions cut from 1990 levels by 2020 combined with the U.S. target of a 25 percent cut on its 2005 levels suggests that “we’re going into Copenhagen at around a 10%-15%” global cut on 1990 emissions levels, McIntosh told Carbon Extra. McIntosh based his calculations on developed nations’ stated commitments to emission reduction targets or, if they were not clear, the most likely estimate of emissions cuts they would agree to, to determine “what cuts developed countries as a collective whole would be aiming for in 2020″.

Still, everyone agrees there are many unknowns that will could shake things up in any number of ways before and during the Copenhagen summit.  One of the biggest unknowns for the Copenhagen talks is what the U.S. will accept.

The US Waxman-Markey climate bill, passed by the US House of Representatives last week, would cut emissions by 17 percent on 2005 levels by 2020. The bill also directs the US Government to use permit revenue to cut emissions by another 10 percent by 2020 by buying international carbon credits. That would make the US target 27 percent on 2005 levels, or 19 percent on 1990 levels by 2020.

“If the US signs up for a 17 percent cut by 2020 then we’re back to an 11 percent” cut on 1990 levels in a global agreement, said McIntosh.

Posted in Cap and Trade, Carbon, China, Climate-Change, Copenhagen, Global Warming, India, Policy, Regulatory and Legal Trends | No Comments »

World’s Most Beautiful Solar Building

The  Akademie Mont Cenis in Herne, Germany is a strikingly beautiful wooden structure covered with glass and transparent photovoltaic modules over an old coal mine.  Beautiful.

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EPA Cracks Down on Ship Emissions: Enter Cold Ironing

The world’s most sea worthy ships – container ships, tankers, bulk carriers, cruise ships and so forth – are also significant sources of air pollution.  Not surprisingly, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency has announced plans to reign in ship-based air pollution by imposing a stringent rule for emissions from large U.S.-flagged ships.

The proposed rule would set ambitious engine and fuel standards in an effort to bring U.S. regulations into harmony with international standards and reduce air pollution in U.S. cities and ports.  The rule adds muscle to the recent decision by the U.S. and Canada to designate thousands of miles of the two countries’ coasts as an Emission Control Area.

There are two types of diesel engines used on oceangoing vessels.  The main propulsion engines on most oceangoing vessels are very large “Category 3″ marine diesel engines (those with per-cylinder displacement at or above 30 liters).  Auxiliary engines on oceangoing vessels typically range in size from small portable generators to locomotive-size engines with power of 4,000 kilowatts or more. Auxiliary engines on U.S.-flagged oceangoing vessels are subject to EPA’s marine diesel engine standards for engines with per-cylinder displacement up to 30 liters per cylinder.  

Industry has already developed strategies for complying with the new regulations.  One of the most compelling solutions is a technology called “cold-ironing,” which allows a specially equipped vessel to plug in to local power grids while tied onshore. The vessel can then draw power for its pumps, communications, ventilation, lighting and other needs from Southern California Edison, instead of its own diesel engines. Providing shore power to an off-loading oil tanker is the pollution-reducing equivalent of removing 187,000 cars from the road for a day. In a year, shore power will eliminate more than 30 tons of pollution.  The picture featured below shows a vessel owned by BP, which uses “cold ironing.”

The BP shore power installation delivers enough electricity to power about 5,500 homes — up to 8 megawatts at 6,660 volts. The Alaska Tanker Company has equipped two of vessels that regularly visit the Port to be able to plug into the BP Terminal on Pier T, which supplies local refineries with crude oil. The joint project, which was undertaken voluntarily, was completed at a cost of $23.7 million — $17.5 million from the Port and $6.2 million from BP.

Prior to its modification, the Alaskan Navigator burned nearly 10,000 gallons of diesel each day in port to power massive pumps needed to off-load its oil. The Pier T project cost $23.7 million to build – $17.5 million from the Port and $6.2 million from BP – and took three years to complete.

Posted in Climate-Change, EPA, Electricity, Global Warming, Industry-News, law | No Comments »

Global Warming Enemy No. 1 Declares Climate Bill “Dead on Arrival” in U.S. Senate

Oklahoma’s Republican senator James Inhofe said the Senate will kill the climate-change legislation that passed by a margin of seven votes in the U.S. House of Representatives last week.  

“It’s dead on arrival in the Senate,” Inhofe said during an appearance at the Vance Development Authority in Enid, Oklahoma on Monday. “It will not happen. I can absolutely guarantee you it’s not going to happen in the Senate.”

The Democratic-controlled House backed the global warming measure on a 219-212 vote late Friday. Eight Republicans voted in favor of the bill, while 44 Democrats voted against it.  A key component of the legislation is the creation of a market-based cap-and-trade program that will reign in carbon emissions by allocating a limited number of allowances to industry, which can trade those allowances amongst themselves.

Inhofe has challenged global warming on nearly every imaginable front, but is best known for his criticisms of climate science.  He has questioned the science that supports the global warming hypothesis, famously dubbing it “the greatest single hoax perpetuated on the American people.”

Posted in Cap and Trade, Climate-Change, Fossil Fuels, Global Warming, Policy, Regulatory and Legal Trends, law | No Comments »