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Surge in Sea Piracy Bigger Threat Than Terrorists, Says RAND Study

Piracy has returned to the high seas in recent years, according to a new study by the RAND Corporation released today.

The study also notes a less dramatic increase in terrorist activities occurring on the high seas, but emphasizes that two groups do not appear to have colluded in any meaningful sense. The objectives of the two crimes remain sufficiently different — piracy pursues financial gain while terrorism targets political goals — to make the prospect of future collusion equally unlikely.

U.S. Helicopter patrols the Straits of Mallorca

“The maritime environment will likely remain a favorable theater for armed violence, crime and terrorism given its expanse, lack of regulation and general importance as a critical conduit for international trade,” said Peter Chalk, a senior political scientist at RAND who authored the report. “While there is no quick fix for eliminating all of this, we can rationally manage the threats within acceptable boundaries.”

The study raises concerns about the wisdom of the government’s intense focus too on responding to worse-case terrorist scenarios rather than combating the growing (albeit with less potentially catastrophic consequences) threat that pirates could take cruise ships or passenger ferries hostage. The U.S. government’s myopic approach to transnational threats underestimates the costs of piracy in human lives, political stability and economic disruption. Since 2000, piracy incidents worldwide have risen more than 68 percent, the study found. During the same time period, terrorist attacks at sea, including the 2004 bombing of the Philippine ship SuperFerry 14 that killed 116 people, rose far less than piracy did.

Piracy is defined essentially as boarding a ship to commit theft or another crime. The total number of incidents was 2,463 between 2000 and 2006, which almost certainly understates the real number nearly. Experts estimate that nearly half of all piracy attacks are never reported, usually because of fears about subsequent investigation costs and increases to insurance premiums.

Piracy remains greatest in Southeast Asia, especially around the Indonesian archipelago. The region accounted for nearly a quarter of all piracy incidents recorded during 2006. Other high-risk areas include the waters off Bangladesh, Somalia, the Gulf of Aden/Red Sea, Nigeria, Tanzania and Peru, which collectively accounted for the bulk of remaining incidents that year.

The vessel Al Marjan was released from pirates off the Somali coast Dec. 2, 2007. The Somalia-based pirates seized the vessel on Oct. 17, 2007. Six other ships have been hijacked by pirates off the Somali coast in recent months.

Several factors have contributed to the recent growth of piracy, including: lax port security and ineffective coastal surveillance; massive growth in commercial maritime traffic; heavy use of narrow and congested chokepoints, such as the Strait of Malacca; and competing resource requirements stemming from heightened national and international pressure to enact expensive, land-based homeland security systems following the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks. In addition, the lingering effects of the Asian financial crisis that spurred falling wages, higher food prices and job losses in the late 1990s, directly contributed to the growth of piracy in and around Indonesia by creating an incentive for many to engage in maritime (and other types) of crime.

Maritime terrorism — attacks against vessels, sea platforms, ports or other coastal facilities — has also experienced a modest increase, particularly over the past six years when several attacks and plots have been attributed to al-Qaeda and affiliated jihadist networks. These incidents raise serious concerns about the possibility that terrorists will target attacks at sea more aggressively in the near-term future.

The guided-missile destroyer USS James E. Williams at Naval Station Norfolk after returning from deployment, where it conducted anti-piracy operations off the coast of Somalia as part of the Maritime Security Operations.