Guestimating the Outcome of Copenhagen Talks
July 3, 2009 – 12:04
One of Australia’s leading climate policy analysts, Dr Andrew McIntosh from Australian National University’s Climate Change Law and Policy Centre, has predicted a global agreement will emerge from the approaching climate-change negotiations in Copenhagen that targets emissions cuts of 10 to 15 percent for developed countries, according to a report in Carbon Extra.
Russia’s new target of a 15 percent emissions cut from 1990 levels by 2020 combined with the U.S. target of a 25 percent cut on its 2005 levels suggests that “we’re going into Copenhagen at around a 10%-15%” global cut on 1990 emissions levels, McIntosh told Carbon Extra. McIntosh based his calculations on developed nations’ stated commitments to emission reduction targets or, if they were not clear, the most likely estimate of emissions cuts they would agree to, to determine “what cuts developed countries as a collective whole would be aiming for in 2020″.
Still, everyone agrees there are many unknowns that will could shake things up in any number of ways before and during the Copenhagen summit. One of the biggest unknowns for the Copenhagen talks is what the U.S. will accept.
The US Waxman-Markey climate bill, passed by the US House of Representatives last week, would cut emissions by 17 percent on 2005 levels by 2020. The bill also directs the US Government to use permit revenue to cut emissions by another 10 percent by 2020 by buying international carbon credits. That would make the US target 27 percent on 2005 levels, or 19 percent on 1990 levels by 2020.
“If the US signs up for a 17 percent cut by 2020 then we’re back to an 11 percent” cut on 1990 levels in a global agreement, said McIntosh.





